MRO spend is set to outgrow the fleet: where AI actually pays

AlixPartners' A&D Outlook 2026 sizes global MRO spend at $126B in 2025, $147B in 2026 (forecast) and $154B in 2027, about 10% a year over 2025-27, then about 3% a year to $196B in 2035. The in-service fleet grows from 33.6 thousand to 45.1 thousand aircraft over the decade, also about 3% a year.

The gap matters. Spend per aircraft, by our calculation, moves from about $3.75M in 2025 to about $4.35M in 2035 in nominal dollars. The report points to a record fleet age of 14.8 years against a 13.6-year average, engine scarcity keeping older assets flying, and pressure on semiconductors and specialty materials. Defence requirements also take priority over shared commercial supply.

The economic reading: when supply of parts and slots is inelastic, value shifts to whoever shortens the wait. The report itself frames the focus as time-to-part and the opportunity cost of grounded assets. It names predictive maintenance, an augmented workforce and digital twins with demand planning as AI areas, but gives no AI savings figures, so any business case must be built locally.

Cardan-AI recommendation: rank AI use cases by hours of aircraft-on-ground avoided per euro spent, start with demand planning and spares availability, and require a measured baseline of time-to-part before funding any predictive-maintenance model.