US defense and AI: three contracts, three very different orders of magnitude

A signal published on October 16, 2026 by federal contracting intelligence platform Govly maps out US defense agencies' appetite for artificial intelligence. The document combines three figures of very different natures, which should not be read with the same degree of certainty.

On the executed-contract side: BigBear.ai won more than 20 contracts with the Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR) in the second quarter of 2026, for amounts up to $5M each — firm, small, already-notified awards. On the larger-scale contractual-commitment side: C3.ai's predictive-maintenance contract with the US Air Force's Rapid Sustainment Office was increased to a $450M ceiling — a legally binding framework, though the amount actually drawn will depend on task orders issued over the life of the contract.

A third figure sits in an entirely different category: more than $70 billion in proposed spending on drone and counter-drone systems in the FY2027 federal budget. Govly explicitly flags this as a budget proposal, not an appropriated line or confirmed procurement — a distinction the signal urges contractors to keep in mind before drawing investment conclusions from it.

The document also flags, in passing, delivery risk on the supply side: BigBear.ai's continuing losses and negative operating cash flow give agencies and teaming partners reason to weigh actual delivery capacity, beyond the sheer volume of signed contracts.