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Projection — illustrative scenario

Pre-sales and bid response

More bids, better written — without degrading technical accuracy

A 12-person team handling 200 bids a year. The gain comes as much from bid volume as from time saved. The documented risk here is the most serious of the five.

Modelled yearly gain
€161k – €304k

modelled yearly gain

Payback
3.0 to 5.6 months
Over 3 years
€338k to €767k net over 3 years
The context

A twelve-person pre-sales team — bid managers, account engineers, technical experts — handles around 200 bids a year at 25 hours each. The reference study covers 758 consultants at a major strategy firm, randomly assigned between equipped and control groups. It measures the gain, but also — more rarely — the cost of poorly bounded use.

What gets put in place
  • Automatic parsing of tender documents, extracting requirements and evaluation criteria
  • First drafts of standard responses from a library of internal references
  • Completeness checking: is every requirement in the tender addressed in the submission?
  • Consistency review across technical, schedule and commercial volumes
Model assumptions

Everything on the table

Pre-sales team
12 people
Volume handled
200 bids/year × 25 h = 5,000 h
Loaded hourly cost
€70/h
Average win rate
20%
Average margin per win
€45,000
Year 1 investment (reference library, integration, use-case boundaries, training)
€75,000
Annual running cost in later years
€35,000/year
The model

Three scenarios, not one number

ParameterConservativeCentralHigh
Time reduction per bid applied−15%−20%−25%
Hours saved (valued)750 h → €53k1,000 h → €70k1,250 h → €88k
Additional bids at constant headcount+12+18+24
Expected additional margin (20% win rate)€108k€162k€216k
Total yearly gain€161k€232k€304k
Payback period5.6 months3.9 months3.0 months
Net cumulative gain over 3 years€338k€551k€767k
The source study measures −25.1% time and +12.2% tasks completed on work inside the tool's competence frontier. We take those as high bounds rather than central values, because a bid always contains a technical share that sits outside that frontier. The volume half of the gain only exists if the market actually offers extra bids to chase.
Limits and blind spots
  • The risk here is documented and quantified: on tasks outside the tool's competence frontier, equipped users produced 19 percentage points fewer correct answers than the control group. On a technical submission, that reads as fluent, well-written — and wrong.
  • The volume half of the gain assumes a market with extra bids to chase and downstream capacity to deliver them. Without that, only the time gain remains — about a third of the model.
  • The 20% win rate and €45k margin per win are working assumptions. They are the two heaviest parameters: replace them with yours before any decision.
  • A technical submission is contractually binding. Nothing ships without validation by a named expert.
Success conditions
  • An explicit map of what the tool handles and what it does not — the direct counter-measure to the risk the study quantifies.
  • A clean, current library of internal references, or the tool will recycle your past mistakes.
  • Named expert sign-off on every technical volume, traced in the review workflow.
  • Before/after win-rate tracking: it is the only indicator that settles the question, and it needs at least two quarters.
Tracking indicators
Bids handled per quarter at constant headcountAverage time to produce a submissionWin rate and formal non-compliance rateTechnical corrections caught in internal review

What these scenarios are, and what they are not

These are models, built for illustration on public sector benchmarks. They are not results observed at Cardan-AI clients, and they constitute no commitment as to outcome. The improvement rates come from the studies cited; the choice of assumptions, the scope haircuts and the arithmetic are Cardan-AI's, and are shown in full so they can be challenged. Transposed to your organisation, these orders of magnitude can vary widely — in both directions.

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